I shouldn't, people tell me. Monitor the internet, climate blogs, news sites. My idea of the future is dark enough as it is, people tel me. Besides, what does it help, rubbing it in?
To some extent I need it to convince myself. Even though I have entered a new state of mind, in which adaptation precedes mitigation, I still wonder. It remains so hard to believe some people actually keep denying, ignoring, ... things I'm pretty sure about to come.
So, maybe I should elaborate on my future, or at least about my outlook on the future.
First of all, everything will go rather slow, with some exceptions. We won't be out of fuel from one day to another, we won't starve due to distribution constraints (be it CO2 or lack of fuel). Compelling as they may be, post-whatever sights, such as in (the book or the movie) "the road" are but vague possibilities, connected to black swan events, a lot of which are described in all kinds of scenarios, especially in Hollywood ones.
The exceptions are related to extreme weather events, such as floods. As the atmosphere gets wetter - filled with more water vapor, due to rising temperatures - more vapor related incidents will happen (extensive and in time concentrated rainfall, snow, hail, ...), combined with bad excess pour-off removal capacity of the ground (concrete and other structural reinforcements of the floor cause water not to sink in but run away, but not in a regulated way, rather to wherever it can run off, meaning more downstream and towards lower lying parts. This will casue floods.
I don't think we will see forest fires, as we don't have that many forests left. I don't think we will see that much hurricanes or tornados.
Apart from the exceptions, I see a lot of possible change:
more people retiring (changing demographics),
higher gasoline prices (commuting and other forms of mobility, distribution of food and commodities, ...), higher resources prices (ores, metals, ...),
more costs due to climate (crops failing due to droughts or floods, extended periods of frost deep into the growing season, ... but society will have to pay for securing waterways and coastlines as well, maybe even wars will be fought over water, eg. in Pakistan, over oil, ...)
what about feedback, such as from permacfrost thawing?
All these factors will coincide into a variable future, which holds far more risks than the nowadays world, being rather stable.
To some extent I need it to convince myself. Even though I have entered a new state of mind, in which adaptation precedes mitigation, I still wonder. It remains so hard to believe some people actually keep denying, ignoring, ... things I'm pretty sure about to come.
So, maybe I should elaborate on my future, or at least about my outlook on the future.
First of all, everything will go rather slow, with some exceptions. We won't be out of fuel from one day to another, we won't starve due to distribution constraints (be it CO2 or lack of fuel). Compelling as they may be, post-whatever sights, such as in (the book or the movie) "the road" are but vague possibilities, connected to black swan events, a lot of which are described in all kinds of scenarios, especially in Hollywood ones.
The exceptions are related to extreme weather events, such as floods. As the atmosphere gets wetter - filled with more water vapor, due to rising temperatures - more vapor related incidents will happen (extensive and in time concentrated rainfall, snow, hail, ...), combined with bad excess pour-off removal capacity of the ground (concrete and other structural reinforcements of the floor cause water not to sink in but run away, but not in a regulated way, rather to wherever it can run off, meaning more downstream and towards lower lying parts. This will casue floods.
I don't think we will see forest fires, as we don't have that many forests left. I don't think we will see that much hurricanes or tornados.
Apart from the exceptions, I see a lot of possible change:
more people retiring (changing demographics),
higher gasoline prices (commuting and other forms of mobility, distribution of food and commodities, ...), higher resources prices (ores, metals, ...),
more costs due to climate (crops failing due to droughts or floods, extended periods of frost deep into the growing season, ... but society will have to pay for securing waterways and coastlines as well, maybe even wars will be fought over water, eg. in Pakistan, over oil, ...)
what about feedback, such as from permacfrost thawing?
All these factors will coincide into a variable future, which holds far more risks than the nowadays world, being rather stable.
